Iran Lurches Forward

Jan. 22, 2016

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed January 16 that Iran had completed the steps required to begin to lift nuclear sanctions imposed by the UN. The IAEA determined that the Iranians have dismantled thousands of centrifuges (used in enriching uranium) and removed and disabled the core of a nuclear reactor that could have produced nuclear weapons fuel. The IAEA also established that the Iranians have shipped to Russia tons of the enriched uranium they had earlier produced. Eventually, Iran will retain only two percent of the enriched uranium it held when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed to between the “P5+1” nations (the US, China, Russia, France, the UK, plus Germany) and Iran in the nuclear negotiations last July.

On January 17, President Obama announced that the U.S. would begin immediately releasing Iranian assets of $1.5 billion that has been held in U.S. banks since the initial sanctions were imposed. An additional $100 billion in Iranian assets will gradually be released as well.

The president also announced some very good news regarding one of Michigan’s finest: Former U.S. Marine Sergeant Amir Hekmati was one of four Iranian-Americans held in Iranian prisons released as part of a deal that appears to have been linked to the nuclear agreement. Amir is a graduate of Flint High School, the son of a professor at Flint’s Mott Community College. During a private visit to Iran to visit his grandmother, Amir was arrested, convicted on fraudulent charges of spying and sentenced to death. That sentence was later reduced to life imprisonment, and he had spent four and a half years(!) in confinement until his release was finally arranged in exchange for Iranians convicted of violating U.S. sanctions. His long nightmare (and our shamefully lame efforts to gain his release) is over, but his experiences and the events surrounding the nuclear deal indicate clearly that our relationship with Iran will continue to be complex.

Two competing factions in Iran are facing off in a power struggle. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his Revolutionary Guards have been the most opposed to an opening with the west, particularly the U.S., while President Hassan Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif represent a liberalizing wing (note I did not say “liberal”). They have nudged the system toward making a deal with the west, largely in response to growing frustration among ordinary Iranians against the crippling sanctions that Iran has been under for several years.

Although strongly supportive of Iran’s nuclear program, Iranians have become impatient with the hardships imposed by the sanctions. Another source of pressure has been Iran’s powerful business leaders. They have been particularly hard hit by sanctions. Over a year ago, when Iran was expelled from a financial transaction network called “SWIFT,” Iran’s international trade came virtually to a halt and the demands to get out from under the sanctions intensified.

With the lifting of sanctions, Iran will immediately be reconnected to global finance and banking systems, will execute an order for 114 Airbus airliners, and will re-enter the global oil market. Iran has already announced plans to produce 500,000 barrels of oil per day. This will have a major disruptive effect on the global market, bringing, most likely, even lower gasoline prices for American consumers, but also playing havoc with our already struggling domestic oil production.

It appears that President Rouhani has been able to convince the Supreme Leader that he had to make a deal over the nuclear issue or Iran might again see protests such as arose when the fraudulent 2009 parliamentary elections brought hundreds of thousands of protestors into the streets. But Rouhani also had to assure the conservatives that Iran was not giving up its nuclear research program and that the nuclear deal ensures that.

President Obama pointed out in his January 17 statement that under the plan, Iran is now a year away from a nuclear weapon, whereas it was as close as two months away just last year. So while it’s worth acknowledging what the deal has accomplished, it’s also fair to point out that Iran has moved the goalposts from our original demand that it completely abandon its nuclear ambitions to now allowing its program to be set back substantially and to allow international inspection of what remains.

The entire fuel cycle -- uranium mining to enrichment -- is now constrained, all good. But the nuclear deal does not stop Iran from conducting nuclear research; just from doing more research on weapons (as it did secretly and hid from the IAEA up until 2003). Iran is also allowed under the plan to retain 5,060 of its older centrifuges and will be able to continue to develop that enrichment technology.

I admit I’ve never been a fan of this nuclear deal. The verification is sketchy and will lead to disputes over “minor” violations. More broadly, Iran remains a major backer of the brutal Assad regime in Syria and the largest financial backer of Hezbollah. Indeed, Iran remains on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. The $110 billion in Iranian assets that will go to Teheran over the next year will fund some of the most reactionary elements of the Iranian political spectrum and will not strengthen the liberalizing elements in that society.

Even while Iran was complying with the terms of the nuclear deal, earlier this month it violated UN sanctions by conducting medium-range ballistic missile tests. Their missile development program remains a destabilizing factor in the volatile Middle East and a worrying sign that during this period of reduced nuclear activity, there are factions in Iran that would like to develop the missile technology they would need to deliver nuclear weapons, should Iran return to that path in the future.

As the imprisonment of Sergeant Amir Hekmati and other Americans shows, as the humiliating treatment of our sailors who strayed into Iranian waters two weeks ago showed, and as the latest violation of missile sanctions showed, Iran apparently is not yet ready to be a responsible player. While we may cautiously celebrate the reduction in the risk of Iranian nuclear development for now, we need to also demand that our government continue to push hard for compliance with all aspects of the deal and not allow Iran use the threat of Iranian withdrawal from the deal as leverage to get away with misbehavior in other sectors of our relationship.

Jack Segal is a retired senior US and NATO diplomat. With his wife, Karen, he co-chairs the International Affairs Forum whose next event, February 18 brings a German-American expert to discuss the challenges facing German Chancellor Angela Merkel.