Is Turkey A Friend?

Aug. 5, 2016

On July 15 a coup attempt erupted across Turkey that briefly threatened the stability of that long-time United States and NATO ally. The attempt has shaken Turkey’s relationship with NATO and the U.S. and raised questions about Turkey’s role in the ongoing struggle within the Islamic world.

The coup plotters were shockingly inept. By failing to take control of the media they were unable to silence the democratically-elected government of President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan. When the vacationing president learned of the coup, he used his smartphone to speak to the world via CNN Turkey.

Turkey’s modern history is riddled with coups and attempted coups. Much can be attributed to the powerful role of the military that began with the nation’s founder, Mustafa Kemal or “Ataturk,” who introduced sweeping reforms to Turkey’s peasant society. He replaced Arabic script with a western alphabet, outlawed wearing the fez, and forbade women from wearing the veil.

But Ataturk’s most important reform was to create a political system that was strictly secular. Islam -- the religion of 95 percent of Turks -- was kept separate from the affairs of the government. Strict adherence to this principle became the overriding characteristic of Turkish governance and the military saw itself as the protector of that principle.

But in recent times, as accession talks with the EU dragged on, Turks began to question Europe’s attitude toward Turkey. Former French President Sarkozy once famously said that “Turkey is not, and never will be European.” In the face of such rejection, and in the midst of the upheavals emerging in the Middle East, internal forces pushing for a more conservative, more “Islamic” Turkish society began to gain traction. This allowed something of a return to his roots for President Erdogan, who had come to prominence in 1994 as a leader of the Islamist Welfare Party.

While Erdogan shifted for a decade to a more secular position and co-founded the Justice and Development (AKP) party -- which he led to three successive victories as Prime Minister -- his commitment to secularism became a matter of debate. Under his leadership, Turkey has enjoyed steady economic growth. But Erdogan also began scheming to reform the Turkish Constitution and possibly take the country in a more Islamist direction.

Erdogan’s maneuvering and Turkey’s history of military-led challenges to elected governments made for a string of challenges that have persisted throughout Erdogan’s reign. Coup plotting led by secret societies within the officer corps were discovered in 2009 and allegedly again in 2010.

In 2010, Erdogan ordered the arrest of 159 generals, admirals, colonels and captains, most of whom have since been exonerated. Since then, Erdogan has turned increasingly authoritarian, jailing hundreds of lawyers, academics and military and government officials. In the aftermath of last month’s coup attempt, over 20,000 have been jailed.

Amidst these internal tensions, over the past five years, Turkey has been torn by wars on all sides: the internal struggle against the Kurds, the civil war in Syria and the struggle against the “Islamic State (ISIS).” A flood of 2.7 million Syrian refugees fleeing ISIS has hit Turkey hard. At the same time, hundreds of foreign fighters have streamed across the Turkish-Syrian border to join ISIS.

For much of the conflict with ISIS, Turkey’s position has been ambiguous: sometimes turning a blind eye to the flow of fighters, funds and weapons to ISIS, sometimes supporting the fight against ISIS, but always viewing any aid to the Kurds as a threat. Turkey had even refused to allow NATO to use the air base at Incirlik in southeastern Turkey for its anti-ISIS bombing campaign, then in July 2015 suddenly agreed to its use, but not in support of the Kurds.

Last month’s coup attempt was a cause for concern for all NATO allies, but the danger it posed to U.S. interests was unique. The base was surrounded by Turkish troops and power was cut off, all operations suspended. U.S. personnel hunkered down to protect the rarely-acknowledged fifty-odd “special” (i.e. nuclear) weapons that are stored there. Those weapons were never threatened, but their presence raised alarm bells in Washington. The post-coup arrest of the Turkish base commander, General Van, underscores the fact that the weapons might have ended up under the control of anti-government forces had the coup not failed.

Just to further complicate things, the Erdogan government is now engaged in a sharp dispute with the U.S. over a Turkish imam who has lived in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania for decades. Fethullah Gülen is a religious leader whose followers are now accused of instigating the coup.

With all the chaos inside and outside its borders, it’s fair to ask where Turkey is headed. Despite its recent deal with the EU to keep millions of refugees on its territory in exchange for billions in aid and free visa travel for Turks to the EU, Turkey has seemingly lost interest in EU membership. In the war against ISIS, Turkey has vacillated from close cooperation to outright obstruction.

One can speculate that Erdogan sees the weakening of ISIS as an opportunity to supplant the “Islamic State” and allow Turkey to become the new focus for Sunni Muslims. Erdogan may envision Turkey as the reincarnation of the once-mighty Ottoman Empire, with Turkey standing against both Sunni Islamist extremism and the hated Shiites of Iran and Erdogan as the new Caliph.

Turkey has long been one of The U.S.’ closest military partners, yet that alliance is now severely strained by the diplomatic fight over Gülen and our differences over the fight against ISIS. Senior U.S. officials are hurriedly streaming to Ankara to try to preserve Turkey’s key role in American strategy in the region (such as it is). Clearly, Turkey has and will pursue its own interests and seek to extend its influence, irrespective of what the U.S. might want. That principle of independence is now putting American interests and influence to their greatest test in decades.

Jack Segal was the Chief Political Adviser to NATO’s operational military commander from 2000-2010. He co-chairs, with his wife Karen Puschel, the International Affairs Forum (tciaf.com).