College Bound?

Fewer Traverse City students will be headed off to college this fall

By Al Parker | May 27, 2023

Another high school graduation season is here. Well before the final notes of “Pomp and Circumstance” drift away, most northern Michigan grads have already made their plans for life after high school. What that future life looks like is as varied as the clouds in a blue June sky; some grads are planning to work, others to travel, but fewer and fewer are looking forward to continuing a classroom education.

For a growing percentage of freshly-minted graduates in northern Michigan, the plan does not include college—at least not in the immediate future.

Declining Enrollment

Earlier this year, an article in Fortune stated that American colleges are seeing a “plunge in enrollment” that is “the worst ever reported.” Across the country, enrollment for undergraduate programs declined 8 percent from 2019 to 2022. Experts attribute the slump to everything from the pandemic to lower birth rates to price, loan, and inflation concerns.

That trend is playing out locally, too. At Traverse City Central High School, 71 percent of this year’s grads are heading to college, 49 percent to four-year schools and 22 percent to a two-year program, according to data from counselor Brandee Ludka. Some 13 percent are going straight to work, while 4 percent are taking a gap year and 3 percent are bound for the military. About 9 percent remain undecided.

A decade ago, the school’s numbers showed 94 percent college-bound; 53 percent to a four-year school and 41 percent to a two-year program, the latter mainly at Northwestern Michigan College (NMC).

Just like at TC Central, across the state, the percentage of grads enrolled in college has been steadily dropping for the past 10 years, according to data from the Center for Educational Performance and Information (CEPI).

Each year, the number of Michigan high school graduates is somewhere between 95,000 and 103,000. In the 2012-2013 school year, 65.8 percent of those eager grads went on to enroll in college. However, every year since then the percentage has declined, to the point where only 52.8 percent of the 2021-22 grads were college bound.

Community Colleges

The majority of the decreasing percentage of college attendance has happened at the state’s two-year community colleges. For example, in the fall of 2022, NMC found that 70 percent of those who applied and later decided not to attend chose not to go to any college at that time.

PBS reports that nationwide, “the number of students at community colleges has fallen 37 percent since 2010, or by nearly 2.6 million.”

Despite the changing metrics, NMC remains a top choice among this year’s 360 TC Central grads, according to Ludka. Other popular college choices include Michigan State University, Michigan Technological University, Grand Valley State University, Northern Michigan University, and Ferris State University.

“For those who go to NMC, the factors include cost, not [being] ready to move away from home, and uncertainty about their career plans,” explains Ludka.

At Traverse City St. Francis High School, a little less than a quarter of the 90 graduates are heading to community colleges.

“We do not have a larger number of kiddos attending community college…it remains about 23 percent of our graduates, but the trades are being considered more, and I believe we will see an increase in the years to come,” says Beth Maday, a St. Francis counselor.

(Currently, under 16 percent of high school grads enroll in vocational or trade school, according to a survey by StrataTech Education Group, though they also found 40 percent considered that route. On a Michigan note, Southeast Michigan Construction Academy has seen enrollment jump from 185 to 500+ in the last six years.)

Where They’re Headed

About 36 percent of St. Francis grads are heading out of state for college, according to Maday. Of that group, 15 percent are apparently looking to avoid winter weather. “The desire to go somewhere warm was a theme this year,” she says. “Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, Arizona, South Carolina, Tennessee…are all desired.”

One Gladiator grad is bound for West Point, two others have received ROTC scholarships, and a fourth is enlisting directly into the military. Another grad auditioned for Disney on Ice and was offered a lead role in a show, and a classmate has landed a dream job in the film industry.

A number of Trojan grads will head to out-of-state schools, too, including Harvard, College of the Atlantic, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, Notre Dame, Wellesley, Pomona College, Princeton, Dartmouth, and Columbia. Most years, it’s no small feat to get into any of those programs, but even with enrollment declining, applications are on the upswing.

“With most colleges becoming test optional, the amount of applicants to highly selective schools has skyrocketed over the last couple years, making it more and more difficult to be accepted into those schools,” says Ludka. “On the flip side, not as many students are applying to the smaller or less ‘brand name’ schools who still offer great programs.”

Applying to more schools has gotten simpler not just because of changes in testing requirements, but also because of the Common Application, which allows prospective students to fill out one application and sumbit it to multiple schools.

“In the past, we would suggest three to five college applications if you have done your homework and researched the schools,” Ludka explains. “Now, students are applying to upwards of eight to 10 schools.”

As for the fields of study that attract these new grads, Ludka says they include business, especially entrepreneurship, psychology, engineering, computer science and artificial intelligence.

“Neuroscience as a major has jumped significantly this year,” adds Maday. “Engineering, in any form, continues to stay steady as a major. Nursing has bumped up again as a career interest.”