What’s Trending in Real Estate Up North?

Advice and predictions from local agents

Many locals and visitors are seeking a home on our pleasant peninsula, but competition remains fierce for the limited inventory in northern Michigan. So Northern Express spoke to four real estate professionals in our area about what to expect over the next six months in terms of home prices, demand, and advice for homebuyers.

A More Balanced Market

The demand for affordable family homes is high, which means prices remain high. Excluding condos, the 2025 median sale price of single-family homes is now $688,250 in Leelanau County and $432,766 in Grand Traverse County. Those two represent the higher ends of the market, while Realtor.com estimates a median sale price of $381,500 for Petoskey, $310,000 for Manistee, $305,000 for Cadillac, and $265,000 for Gaylord.

Though affordability remains a challenge, the market is balancing out. “After four years of historically low inventory that created one of the strongest seller’s markets in history, the era of year-over-year record price increases is likely behind us,” says Jonathan Oltersdorf, associate broker at Oltersdorf Realty, LLC in Suttons Bay. “It’s neither a seller’s market nor a buyer’s market; it’s the sweet spot for most types of housing.”

Meg Zammit of Century 21 Northland echoes this. “I expect to see more inventory as we’ve seen rates drop a bit since last fall. Homes may sit on the market a little longer, but this is indicative of a return to normalcy; neither a seller’s market nor a buyer market but something truly neutral and balanced. This is a great sign for our region.”

The right price point helps homes move more quickly. Bridget Maguire of the Shawn Schmidt Group at Coldwell Banker in Traverse City points to that half-million mark as the tipping point for many buyers.

“In Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Benzie, and Antrim counties, homes under $500,000 are still drawing steady demand, while higher-priced properties are sitting on the market longer than they did over the past five years,” says Maguire. “The upside is that opportunities remain for both sides: sellers are still finding buyers, and buyers are gaining more leverage and facing less competition than in the frenzy of recent years.”

Everyone Wants a View of the Bay

In addition to lower priced homes, waterfront homes are perennially popular. Of course, there’s only so much waterfront to build on, so our experts expect demand to stay high while supply is low.

“Waterfront buyers, both primary and seasonal homes, have not slowed down. They’re coming from within Michigan and all over the country, they’re paying cash, and they know exactly what they want,” says Zammit.

On the flip side, most of the folks who own a coveted lake house are not looking to sell, according to Oltersdorf.

“The waterfront submarket stands out with virtually no inventory growth. With supply still tight, it remains a strong seller’s market, and prices have continued to climb sharply this year with not enough inventory to meet demand,” he explains.

Prices Are Likely to Remain Relatively Steady

Though there may be some bumps along the way, the realtors expect overall home prices will continue to rise, but at a slower rate than in recent years.

Oltersdorf predicts “prices are unlikely to fall drastically unless we see a flood of forced sales like those that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Since 2008, our country simply hasn’t built enough housing to trigger widespread distress selling, especially in our region.”

Now that we’re officially into fall, prices might actually dip a bit with the seasons.

Lisa Bradford, managing Broker of Real Estate One in Beulah, adds, “The six-county northwest [real estate] market has been busier this year, with total closed sales up 4 percent year-to-date compared to 2024. Prices overall are essentially flat, rising just 2 percent… Despite strong demand, buyers are becoming more selective, forcing sellers to adjust pricing when properties don’t stand out. Looking ahead, northwest Michigan is likely to follow its familiar seasonal slowdown as summer peaks pass.”

Don’t Wait for Interest Rates to Drop

While home prices might get a seasonal slump, interest rates remain in limbo. Our experts agree that holding out for lower interest rates is not a good strategy for buyers.

“Waiting to buy based on a prediction of when that may or may not happen is why I have had several clients be completely priced out of our region,” Zammit says. “Do I think we’ll see 3 percent again? If we do, that means something not so great is happening with the rest of our economy.”

Maguire agrees. “I like to recommend that buyers don’t wait for the ‘perfect’ rate but instead focus on finding the right home when the timing makes sense for you.”

“With so many buyers paying cash in our area, mortgage rates have less impact on affordability than other parts of the country. I think people now understand that 6-7 percent rates are here to stay, and they’re okay with it,” says Oltersdorf.

More Advice for Homebuyers

Ready to make the leap into a new home?

“Get full approval, not just pre-approval,” says Bradford. “A strong offer includes a full loan approval or verified proof of funds. Would you sell your largest asset to someone who only says they can pay?”

She adds, “Here’s a little-known but powerful tip: when your realtor submits your offer, have your lender call the listing agent. Why? Because sellers want to minimize risk. A quick call confirming your financial strength helps the seller feel confident you’ll close as promised.”

And if money is tight, there are options out there.

“It’s important to understand that there are loan programs available that help by offering down payment assistance, lower down payment [or zero percent down] requirements,” Zammit says. “The Michigan Economic Development Corporation has launched an initiative recently delegating money to region-specific groups like Traverse Connect to award $10,000 grants to help make ownership possible.”

And sometimes, you may just have to think outside the box. “On the more creative side, I would like to see more people consider multi-generational living and shared housing spaces,” Zammit says.

Are Primary Residences Back in Vogue?
Short-term rentals (STRs) and second (or third) home purchases have been the plague of primary homebuyers Up North. For a decade, inventory has been snatched up and turned into Airbnbs or other vacation homes, which contributes to pricing full-time residents out of the market.

The good news is, in Traverse City at least, there are more buyers looking for their permanent home.

“Looking at just the past five years, about 80 percent of my clients have been buying or selling their primary residence,” Maguire says, noting that the investment and vacation rental market has slowed over the past year. “Returns are harder to come by, the short-term rental market feels saturated, and some properties that allow STRs are sitting on the market much longer than they would have from 2020 through 2023. On top of that, many townships are revisiting ordinances and permits for short-term rentals, which adds another layer of risk for investors.”

Zammit concurs. “At the height of the crazy market during early COVID years, it was very common for me to hear from multiple potential buyers every week looking to purchase here and ‘maybe rent it out as an Airbnb when we’re not using it.’ I think maybe a little of that shine has worn off now. People realize that, especially at these prices, these ventures are a heck of a lot of work, require constant attention, and often the profit margin doesn’t make sense given Michigan non-homestead tax rates.”

In Leelanau County, the story is different. Oltersdorf says the ratio of vacation homes to primary homes has remained essentially unchanged over the last decade. “About 50 percent of my clients are buying second homes. Many assume that with the rise of Airbnb, VRBO, and similar online platforms, the percentage of primary homes has dropped significantly, but that’s not really the case. In 2010, only 45.3 percent of homes in Leelanau County were primary residences, and 14 years later, that figure is 46 percent.”

Photo courtesy of Bridget Maguire/The Shawn Schmidt Group. Photo by Erin Attwood, Dune Life Photography.

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