And They're Off

Spectator

It must be an election year because Congressman Jack Bergman is back to communicating, sort of, with constituents. His recent non-campaign campaign mailer does not mention upcoming elections at all, instead discussing how his office can be of assistance to District 1 residents. Just a coincidence this helpful reminder hits just months before an election.  

What’s considerably more interesting than Bergman’s election-year visibility is the race for Michigan governor as Gretchen Whitmer surrenders to term limits. There are multiple candidates from both parties, but we’ll concentrate on the Republicans for this column and address the Democrats later. 

GOP candidates have a bit of a problem as they are forced to appeal to Donald Trump supporters in the primary election, as his approval rating among Republicans continues to hover above 85 percent. But Trump’s approval rating among all Michigan voters is a dismal 37 percent, according to Newsweek polling from the third week of April. How you campaign as full-blown MAGA for an Aug. 4 primary only to try and careen back to the middle by the Nov. 3 General Election is something of a mystery. 

There has already been some polling conducted by multiple firms, so we’ll work on an average of data from Emerson College, JMC Analytics, Mitchell Research, Rosetta Stone, and Target Insyght. 

“Undecided” currently boasts a strong lead, but U.S. Representative John James is narrowly leading the Republican pack among voters making a choice. James, who lost bids for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020, was elected to Congress in 2022 and reelected in 2024. A West Point graduate, he claims his campaign will be “mission first, people always” and his platform includes the usual suspects: economic growth, parental rights, school choice, and reducing government regulation. How he plans to do any of that is unknown.   

James has not been a full-throated MAGA warrior, taking a milder approach hoping for wider appeal. President Trump has not endorsed James as he prefers he stay in Congress where he can better help support the Trump agenda. 

Mike Cox, Michigan’s former Attorney General, apparently wants us to perceive him as the tough guy candidate. The narrator of his commercials practically yells at the listener and all the MAGA dog whistles are clearly evident. He wants to eliminate the state income tax, reestablish Right to Work laws, eliminate any and all DEI programs (apparently without regard to value or law), take a strong position against illegal immigration (though it’s not clear how much of a problem that is in Michigan), and, finally, he wants to “DOGE state government.” And, like all politicians before him, he will eliminate waste, fraud, and duplication. 

As an aside, you’d think fraud, waste, and duplication would have been eliminated by now, since virtually every candidate from both parties always promises to do just that. Having failed, they will make the same promise next election and then the next and the next. 

Which brings us to the man currently running a close second behind John James, Perry Johnson. Though not a politician, Johnson did run for governor and lost in 2022 and then launched a Quixotic presidential run in 2024. Johnson is an organizational efficiency expert by trade, has written books on it, and has consulted with and advised Fortune 500 companies. He’s an advocate of the International Organization of Standardization (ISO). His platform would, like others, eliminate the Michigan income tax, claiming it would save the average family of four $4,747 annually. He would also create a Michigan Efficiency Government Audit (MEGA) and review every cent expended by the Michigan government. And, as is mandatory, he claims he will eliminate the usual fraud, waste, and duplication but add inefficiency to the list. 

Aric Nesbitt is not the last of the GOP candidates but the last to have at least a little current visibility and traction. The Minority Leader of the State Senate, Nesbitt is trying to out-MAGA his opponents. He would eliminate the property tax and “lower taxes,” which would surely help with his other promise to “reduce government.” Most of the rest of his platform is generic, red-meat rhetoric, and, of course, he will eliminate fraud, waste, and duplication. He’s a fan of completing Enbridge Line 5 while ending many of what he calls “New Green Scam” environmental regulations. 

Given the 24-hour news cycle with which we are now confronted, even the three months until the primary is a very long time politically. John James has somehow gently kept Donald Trump at arm’s length without offending him while still touting his conservative bona fides. But what might make him a strong candidate in November could put him at risk among Trump true-believers in August. The other candidates have the opposite problem—their pro-Trump strength in the primary could be a very heavy, neck-bending albatross come November. 

It must be an election year because Congressman Jack Bergman is back to communicating, sort of, with constituents. His recent non-campaign campaign mailer does not mention upcoming elections at all, instead discussing how his office can be of assistance to District 1 residents. Just a coincidence this helpful reminder hits just months before an election.

What’s considerably more interesting than Bergman’s election-year visibility is the race for Michigan governor as Gretchen Whitmer surrenders to term limits. There are multiple candidates from both parties, but we’ll concentrate on the Republicans for this column and address the Democrats later.

GOP candidates have a bit of a problem as they are forced to appeal to Donald Trump supporters in the primary election, as his approval rating among Republicans continues to hover above 85 percent. But Trump’s approval rating among all Michigan voters is a dismal 37 percent, according to Newsweek polling from the third week of April. How you campaign as full-blown MAGA for an Aug. 4 primary only to try and careen back to the middle by the Nov. 3 General Election is something of a mystery.

There has already been some polling conducted by multiple firms, so we’ll work on an average of data from Emerson College, JMC Analytics, Mitchell Research, Rosetta Stone, and Target Insyght.

“Undecided” currently boasts a strong lead, but U.S. Representative John James is narrowly leading the Republican pack among voters making a choice. James, who lost bids for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020, was elected to Congress in 2022 and reelected in 2024. A West Point graduate, he claims his campaign will be “mission first, people always” and his platform includes the usual suspects: economic growth, parental rights, school choice, and reducing government regulation. How he plans to do any of that is unknown.

James has not been a full-throated MAGA warrior, taking a milder approach hoping for wider appeal. President Trump has not endorsed James as he prefers James stay in Congress where he can better help support the Trump agenda.

Mike Cox, Michigan’s former Attorney General, apparently wants us to perceive him as the tough guy candidate. The narrator of his commercials practically yells at the listener and all the MAGA dog whistles are clearly evident. He wants to eliminate the state income tax, reestablish Right to Work laws, eliminate any and all DEI programs (apparently without regard to value or law), take a strong position against illegal immigration (though it’s not clear how much of a problem that is in Michigan), and, finally, he wants to “DOGE state government.” And, like all politicians before him, he will eliminate waste, fraud, and duplication.

As an aside, you’d think fraud, waste, and duplication would have been eliminated by now, since virtually every candidate from both parties always promises to do just that. Having failed, they will make the same promise next election and then the next and the next.

Which brings us to the man currently running a close second behind John James, Perry Johnson. Though not a politician, Johnson did run for governor and lost in 2022 and then launched a Quixotic presidential run in 2024. Johnson is an organizational efficiency expert by trade, has written books on it, and has consulted with and advised Fortune 500 companies. He’s an advocate of the International Organization of Standardization (ISO). His platform would, like others, eliminate the Michigan income tax, claiming it would save the average family of four $4,747 annually. He would also create a Michigan Efficiency Government Audit (MEGA) and review every cent expended by the Michigan government. And, as is mandatory, he claims he will eliminate the usual fraud, waste, and duplication but add inefficiency to the list.

Aric Nesbitt is not the last of the GOP candidates but the last to have at least a little current visibility and traction. The Minority Leader of the State Senate, Nesbitt is trying to out-MAGA his opponents. He would eliminate the property tax and “lower taxes,” which would surely help with his other promise to “reduce government.” Most of the rest of his platform is generic, red-meat rhetoric, and, of course, he will eliminate fraud, waste, and duplication. He’s a fan of completing Enbridge Line 5 while ending many of what he calls “New Green Scam” environmental regulations.

Given the 24-hour news cycle with which we are now confronted, even the three months until the primary is a very long time politically. John James has somehow gently kept Donald Trump at arm’s length without offending him while still touting his conservative bona fides. But what might make him a strong candidate in November could put him at risk among Trump true-believers in August. The other candidates have the opposite problem—their pro-Trump strength in the primary could be a very heavy, neck-bending albatross come November.

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