Population Pressures Up North

A look at demographic changes in northern Michigan

By Ren Brabenec | Aug. 23, 2025

According to Bridge Michigan, K-12 Michigan’s student enrollment fell again in 2024-25, though the 0.5 percent drop was the smallest drop Michigan has seen in several years. Statewide, 6,441 fewer students enrolled in the 2024-25 academic year compared to the 2023-24 academic year.

The drop is being felt closer to home, too. In the 2024-25 school year, Traverse City Area Public Schools (TCAPS) had 8,584 students. That figure was 9,007 in 2020-21, 9,625 in 2015-16, 10,385 in 2010-11, and 10,627 in 2005-06.

Why Are There Fewer Kids in School?

Housing, access to good-paying jobs, and the overall cost of living are playing increasingly decisive roles in whether young adults can realistically settle down and raise families in northern Michigan. Or if they can even start those families in the first place—in a July 2024 Pew Research poll, 36 percent of respondents under age 50 said they were unlikely to have kids because they couldn’t afford to raise a child.

Housing in particular is a major cost concern, with much of the region’s housing being purchased as second homes or vacation rentals, resulting in bidding wars and cash offers that price working-age adults out of the market. According to our sister publication, The Leelanau Ticker, in Leelanau County, only 40 percent of homebuyers are locals, and fewer than half of the homes in the county are registered as primary residences.

Even in northern Michigan counties that are experiencing population increase, like Grand Traverse County, the influx of new residents is primarily comprised of people over 55 who likely won’t have children in the region’s schools.

Yarrow Brown, executive director at the nonprofit Housing North, helped us dig a little deeper on housing and other barriers to entry for working-age Americans arriving in and staying in northern Michigan.

Brown opened our discussion with what she calls her “elevator presentation” of the problem. “The cost of living combined with lower-wage, mostly-seasonal jobs constrains population growth by limiting the in-migration of young families, increasing outmigration of working-age residents seeking higher wages elsewhere, and reinforcing an aging population structure as retirees remain the primary source of new arrivals,” she says.

Brown expanded on the three challenges Housing North sees as major impediments to growing the population of young people in northern Michigan:

1) Housing costs. Brown says many young people currently in the area are “cost burdened,” meaning they’re paying so much in rent they can’t afford to save for a home. Approximately 43.3 percent of the area’s renter households are spending over 30 percent of their monthly income on housing, and 20 percent are spending over 50 percent of their income.

2) Childcare costs. Brown added that a recent survey of young, working families showed that access to childcare was their number one obstacle to creating a life for themselves in northern Michigan. “Limited affordable childcare restricts workforce participation, particularly for young parents, further constraining population growth in those younger age cohorts that we need to see more of in northern Michigan,” she says.

3) Job market structure and wages. Some time ago, Michiganders pulled the state out of a decades-long recession partially by branding the Great Lakes State as a tourism destination. Many agree the effort helped save the state, but Brown and others interviewed for this article note it’s time to shift the narrative and market/brand northern Michigan as a place to live, not just a place to visit. Why? Because many of the jobs young people currently have access to in northern Michigan are designed to serve the state’s tourism and seasonal-resident economy, jobs that do not pay well enough to support living in the region.

How Do We Make the Region Family Friendly?

Warren Call is president and CEO of Traverse Connect, the lead economic development organization for the Grand Traverse region. In 2019, the organization noted a regional decline in the core working-age population of 35- to 49-year-olds, amounting to a 10 percent decline from 2010 to 2017.

To Call, reversing that trend is essential to building economic vitality in the region. “We want economic vitality that grows family-sustaining careers,” Call says. “All jobs are good jobs, but we’re most focused on growing the economy in such a way that people can afford to live here and enjoy what makes this place special.”

Traverse Connect identified the above population decline issue as its “North Star” and rolled out a strategy in 2020 aimed at reversing the trend. “Our work essentially constitutes three key pillars of economic development,” Call says.

1) Focusing on “placemaking.” According to Call, people used to move to places where the job market was appealing, whether they liked the place or not. Now, they’re more likely to move to appealing places and get a job to support life in that place. To attract working adults, Call says Traverse Connect is making the region as competitive as possible for economic growth by advocating for state and federal funding for high-speed internet, good roads, infrastructure improvements, and expanded air service, among other initiatives.

2) Diversifying economic opportunity. Call states another pillar of their work is to attract advanced industries that are expected to grow and operate year-round, such as technology, health sciences, value-added agriculture, and manufacturing.

3) Strengthening the workforce talent continuum. Traverse Connect also collaborates with stakeholders, state and local governments, and nonprofits to expand access to housing and continuing education. For example, Traverse Connect was able to secure grant funds from the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) to offer qualified applicants $5,000 toward their rent or down payment for a house, incentivizing a move to the TC area.

Call ticks off numerous initiatives Traverse Connect is involved in to accomplish the above goals, like Michigan’s Creative Coast Program, which was designed to attract and retain talent. And according to Call, they’ve seen an 8 percent growth in 35- to 49-year-olds since 2020, and the 25-35 age demographic is also beginning to turn around.

“At Traverse Connect, we believe that reversing Michigan’s population decline requires more than just demographic shifts, it demands structural reform,” Call says. “These aren’t just economic strategies. They’re human-centered solutions designed to build a more vibrant, resilient future for northern Michigan.”

What’s Happening on the State Level?

Next, we spoke with Hilary Doe, Chief Growth Officer at MEDC. Doe tells us the mission at MEDC is to achieve long-term economic prosperity for Michiganders by investing in communities, enabling the growth of good jobs, and promoting Michigan’s strong image worldwide.

She adds that population growth is essential because population decline is existential. She also notes that, while the first two decades of the new century saw Michigan falling behind overall U.S. population growth trends, the past two years have shown promising signs of change.

“Some of the places that haven’t grown in a long time are growing again,” Doe said. “Detroit grew its population for the first time in 50 years. Flint did the same for the first time in 25 years. Last year, 66 percent of Michigan counties experienced population growth, with the greatest per-capita growth occurring in rural counties. Also, our young adult population [22- to 40-year-olds] is growing faster than in 45 other states.”

Doe says statewide population growth comes down to just a few key factors:

1) Find out what people need. Doe tells us she and her MEDC teams traveled the state and spoke with 20,000 Michiganders in person to determine what they needed to grow their economies and populations.

2) Enact policies that support sustainable growth. Doe referenced one example where a bipartisan council in the state government voted 19 to 1 on policy recommendations that would help spark growth. These recommendations became bills that became laws, including universal PreK, first-time-homebuyer assistance, relocation help through the Make Michigan Home initiative, and an Innovation Fund to support entrepreneurs.

3) Tell the story. Like Traverse Connect, MEDC has launched comprehensive storytelling campaigns that tell Michigan’s story, leading to 50,000 qualified candidates from out of state moving all the way through the Make MI Home career portal in just 18 months.

“Through our robust public engagement, we learned our state’s diverse needs require unique, locally-driven growth strategies,” Doe says.