North Korea’s War Talk

March 18, 2016

My first experience with North Korea was during my initial tour as a diplomat in far away Botswana. North Korea had been invited to participate in a national trade fair with other nations, but when I walked into its pavilion, all that was on display was anti-American propaganda. I asked the North Koreans to explain why. Without a word, one of the North Koreans charged at me with a cricket bat. I retreated, absorbing in that experience a lesson about just how far apart we and the North Koreans really were. And apparently still are.

"Decapitation strikes" from the U.S., threats to reduce the U.S. and South Korea to "seas of flame and ash" from North Korea – strong rhetoric, even for a relationship as fraught with hostility. Meanwhile, U.S. and South Korean forces began their annual two month-long military exercises involving 17,000 U.S. and 300,000 South Korean troops amidst further warnings from Pyongyang of a "preemptive offensive nuclear strike."

How worried should we be about this latest escalation?

Let’s take a quick look at how we arrived at this moment. North Korea had been suspected of seeking nuclear weapons for decades and, according to U.N. inspectors (who were allowed in the country only occasionally) was producing weapons-grade material at a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

During the Clinton administration, diplomatic efforts to limit the program to peaceful uses had some success when North Korea, facing severe food shortages, agreed to negotiate. President Clinton insisted as a pre-condition that North Korea re-admit U.N. inspectors. And, in a show of good faith, U.S.-South Korean military exercises were suspended.

The result was "The Agreed Framework," hammered out over many months of contentious wrangling. It included western-financed construction of a new nuclear reactor that would be less of a proliferation concern and provision of 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil per year to get North Korea through several winters. Most important from Pyongyang’s perspective, the U.S. agreed not to threaten or use nuclear weapons against the country. The U.S. also promised to pursue normalization of relations, another key North Korean demand.

But it came out years later that Clinton administration officials viewed the Agreed Framework as a stalling action. "The Great Leader" Kim Il-Sung had died suddenly of a heart attack on July 8, 1994 and it was believed (hoped?) that succession would plunge North Korea into chaos and trigger demands for reunification with democratic South Korea.

Instead, Kim Jong-Il, Kim Il-Sung’s son, stepped smoothly into the top role. Meanwhile, the 1994 U.S. Congressional elections swept a Republican majority into power strongly opposed to the Agreed Framework. The chief U.S. negotiator, Steve Bosworth, said, "The Agreed Framework was a political orphan within two weeks after its signature." When the U.S. subsequently reneged on our part of the agreement, Pyongyang’s new "Dear Leader" was able to walk away from his obligations; and less than a decade later, President George W. Bush coined his famous "axis of evil" phrase to describe Iran, Iraq and North Korea.

Fast forward to Dec. 17, 2011 when Kim Jong- Il died and Kim Jong-Un ("The Great Successor") took power. Western diplomats speculated that perhaps the new leader, who had attended prep school in Switzerland, might be someone we could deal with. Indeed, in Feb. 2012, North Korea announced it would suspend nuclear activities and place a moratorium on missile tests in exchange for American food aid. This hope was short-lived when Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile in April that halted any possibility of discussions.

Since then, North Korea has pursued increasingly sophisticated military capabilities – longer-range and submarine-launched missiles, and more advanced and powerful nuclear weapons. It has moved closer to acquiring a long-range ballistic missile capable of hitting the western U.S. with a nuclear warhead. Despite universal international condemnation, including from China, and the expansion of U.N. sanctions, the new young leader in Pyongyang seems undeterred and indifferent to his diplomatic isolation. His rhetoric has become even more bellicose and erratic.

What are we to do in the face of leadership seemingly content to sacrifice the welfare of its people for the ability to threaten the U.S. and North Korea’s neighbors?

I don’t have a good answer. But one thing I would warn about is the current idea circulating about a U.S. "decapitation" strategy, i.e., raids into North Korea aimed at killing Kim Jong-Un and his entourage.

We should have learned from the past decade the perils of regime change, particularly in a country as isolated and monolithic as North Korea. The stakes in a nuclear-armed and unpredictable North Korea are very, very high.

Who would replace Kim Jong-Un? Before we go down that dangerous road, we’d better be 100 percent certain that his replacement would be any better. I doubt it.

Instead, we’re left with options that might not be sexy or dramatic, but are aimed at keeping a lid on the situation, both literally and figuratively. We need to continue to bolster missile defenses in South Korea and Japan (at their expense, by the way), use our telecommunications skills to bombard North Korea with propaganda against the regime, use our cyber skills to counter any North Korean attacks, and work with China to tighten the sanctions already agreed upon.

NOTE: Here’s a unique opportunity to hear from someone who spent considerable time in South Korea over the past two decades, including his last tour as Deputy Chief of Staff, U.N. Command and U.S. Forces Korea. Sponsored by the International Affairs Forum, USAF Major General (ret.) Brian Bishop speaks on Apr. 11 at 6pm at the TC Central High School.

Jack Segal was Director for Non-Proliferation at the National Security Council. He and his wife, Karen Puschel, co-chair the International Affairs Forum at NMC. IAF’s Apr. 21 lecture features former Canadian Ambassador David Collins discussing "Prime Minister Trudeau’s New Directions."