Global Warming: The Good News & the Bad

Nov. 28, 2002

The good news about global warming for Michigan is that by the end of the century, the state is expected to have a winter climate similar to Arkansas or southern Missouri.
But that‘s also the bad news, because Michigan‘s reputation as a “winter wonderland“ is expected to melt with the earth‘s rising temperatures. Instead of abundant skiing and snowmobiling opportunities, we‘ll have an extended “mud season“ of gray skies through the winter and spring, generated by lake effect rains which will take up where the snows of year‘s past left off.
The revelations were among many at a conference on Climate Change and the Great Lakes held Nov. 8 at Crystal Mountain ski resort in Benzie County. At the conference, climatologists and about 40 stakeholders in Michigan‘s winter tourism industry put their heads together to paint a picture of what winter will be like some 90 years from now.

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?
Global warming is caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, which come from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal.
“Greenhouse gases make our planet habitable by increasing the temperature enough to make this a comfortable place to live,“ said Peter Sousounis, a professor of meteorology at Michigan State University. “However, too much of a good thing can be bad.“
Sousounis said that carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to increase in the earth‘s atmosphere over the next 100 years. “A thicker atmosphere is a warmer atmosphere and reflects an increase in temperature. Our winters will warm correspondingly more than our summers.
“That‘s not good news for snow enthusiasts,“ Sousounis added.
Currently, researchers are using two computer models to predict long-range weather trends. The Hadley Model, developed in the United States, predicts an average winter temperature increase of up to 5 degrees for the Great Lakes region by the end of the century. The Canadian Model predicts a winter increase of up to 10 degrees. Overall, yearly temperatures will increase between 3.6 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2090s.
As a result, by the end of the century, winter temperatures will seldom get lower than the 20s or 30s in Michigan, Sousounis said. “The typical winter day by the end of the century will be the typical day now when we have an El Nino.“
That means a lot of days above the freezing point of 32 degrees. However, there may be more frequent storms that are “slower, stronger, moister and more efficient“ than the storms we have now.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN
Unfortunately, those storms will most likely deliver “lake effect rain,“ rather than snow, according to Kenneth Kunkel a researcher with the Atmospheric Environment Section of the Illinois State Water Survey.
And it may be too cold to do a lot of typical summer activities out of doors, such as golf or cycling, but not cold enough to produce snow for winter sports.
Currently, Michigan experiences an average of 80-100 inches of snow per year, much of it being the result of lake effect.
Lake effect snow requires precise conditions to occur.
“Cold air passing over the Great Lakes picks up heat and moisture from the warmer waters and deposits it onshore as lake effect snow,“ said Kunkel. “Typical air temperatures must be in the range of 14 to 32 degrees to create heavy snow -- not too cold, but colder than freezing.“
Additionally, wind speeds must be greater than 14 mph, and there must be a 13 degree difference between the temperature of the air and the surface of the water for lake effect snow to occur.
Ninety years from now, the elements of moisture and wind will still be present on the Great Lakes, minus the influence of temperature. “The conditions for precipitation will still exist, so we might expect more lake effect rain,“ Kunkel said.

HOW MUCH SNOW?
The two computer models predict different outcomes for the amount of snow in the region.
• The Hadley Model claims there will be a 50% reduction in lake effect snow by the 2090s, while the Canadian Model predicts a 90% reduction.
• The Hadley Model predicts an increase of 3-6 days of winter storms. The Canadian Model predicts an increase of 6-8 storm days (again, mostly rain).
• The Hadley Model predicts an average of 46 inches of snow for Northern Michigan by the end of the century. The Canadian model predicts an average of only 10 inches.
• The Hadley Model predicts an average of 18 snow days in the future. The Canadian Model predicts an average of 5.
Given the rate of increase in global warming, researchers tend to favor the more drastic Canadian Model.

THE FLYWHEEL EFFECT
What about winters in the immediate future? Say, 10 years from now?
Kunkel says that computer models can only predict long-term trends and it‘s impossible to tell what our winters will be like in the short run. “There are intervariable factors like El Nino which will affect us over the next few years.“
At ski resorts such as Crystal Mountain, the warming trends could mean having to triple the amount of snowmaking to get ready for the season, said Michael Call, head of winter operations at the resort. Crystal Mountain had averaged 122 days of skiing during the past 11 years of operation, but the season has dropped to about 100 days over the past few years due to warming trends.
For the long term, our reliance on fossil fuels is expected to make things a lot worse before they get better.
“Scientists who‘ve studied our weather over the last 1,000 years say the increase in temperatures in the 20th century is way out of line with anything that‘s occurred in history,“ Kunkel said. Worldwide, temperatures increased by 1 percent in the late 20th century, according to a study by the United Nations. The trend is expected to continue.
In pre-industrial times, natural sources of carbon dioxide, such as emissions from volcanos, amounted to 300 parts per million in the atmosphere. By the end of the 20th century, however, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rose by 30 percent due to sources such as factories, automobiles and coal-burning power plants. “At the rate at which we‘re putting things in the atmosphere now, by mid century we‘ll be double what was in the atmosphere in pre-industrial times to 600 parts per million,“ Kunkel said.
“We hope there will be some attempts to decrease global emissions and slow the rate of temperature increases down, but the most optimistic projection only reaches 500 parts per million by the end of the century.“
Kunkel noted that the earth‘s oceans have a “flywheel effect“ on temperatures which will continue to build even if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are scaled back. “The oceans haven‘t fully responded yet to what we‘ve done.“
“If we stopped what we‘re doing today, we‘d still see these temperature increases for another 30 or 40 years,“ Sousounis added.

IMPACT ON TOURISM
Global warming is likely to have an impact on tourism in Northern Michigan -- both good and bad.
Donald Holecek of the Tourism Resource Center at Michigan State University, said that tourism has increased in the region by four percent per year since 1985. Low gas prices and the appeal of Michigan‘s natural resources have meant an abundant source of tourists from within the state itself as residents of metropolitan areas flock to our forests, beaches and attractions.
Tourism accounts for annual revenues of $12 billion in Michigan and provides 200,000 jobs. Half of all tourists in the state come to Northern Michigan or the Upper Peninsula.
Although only 16 percent of pleasure trips are made during the winter, a lack of snow can have a huge impact on the state‘s tourist economy, Holecek said. During the meltdown of 1995, when there was virtually no snow up north, Michigan lost $1.5 billion in tourist dollars and 30,000 jobs.
Lack of winter tourism has a ripple effect: As an example, a waitress who had no snowmobilers or skiers to serve did not have enough income from tips to buy a new car. When the employees of ski resorts, snowmobile shops, restaurants, nightclubs, art galleries and gift shops suffer from lack of business, then the businesses on down the economic stream are also impacted.
Lack of snow in the future and more lake effect rains will mean an extended “mud season“ that will decrease tourism in the north, Holecek said. Gray, rainy skies along with brown fields and the muddy experience of a Northern Michigan spring will be a turn-off for tourists.

THE GOOD NEWS
Given so much bad news on global warming, it may come as a surprise that there is also some good news for Northern Michigan.
For instance, an extended summer season will mean more opportunities for golfing, hiking, cycling, paddling and going to the beach. It‘s also likely that there will be an increased growing season of benefit to the region‘s farmers.
There will also still be plenty of snow in Michigan for skiers and snowmobilers in 2095... but it will be in the western Upper Peninsula, which won‘t be affected by global warming as much as the rest of the state. Fortunately, the 300 mile drive there will be on roads that are largely free of snow and ice.
Also, Sousounis and Kunkel said that concerns over global warming could spur the research and development of windpower, nuclear fusion reactors, electric automobiles and other alternatives to polluting the skies.
Perhaps the best news about global warming, however, is that it is now a widely-acknowledged threat by industry and government after years of denials.
Vicki Levengood of the National Environmental Trust in East Lansing said she‘s seen a gradual turnaround through the years of skeptics who are now taking global warming seriously. “They started out claiming there was no such thing as global warming and then as the evidence grew, they started saying that an increase in temperatures would be a good thing,“ she said. “Now, most people agree we have to start doing something about it.“