Here’s Our Too Early Oscars Scorecard

Dec. 18, 2015

The critics weighed in, year-end lists have been made, guild nominations are being revealed, and shortlists have been announced. Yes, it’s that time of the year again – awards season. So while you can have your Golden Globes, your Independent Spirit Awards, and your BAFTAS, when it comes down to it, there’s only one show that matters: the Academy Awards.

On Jan. 14 the nominees for the 88th Annual Academy Awards will be revealed for the ceremony held on February 28 and hosted by Chris Rock. Traditional indicators of nominations from critics associations and industry guilds suggest that this year’s Oscar nominees are shaping up to be an unpredictable batch – despite the presence of many familiar names like Spielberg, Blanchett, and DiCaprio.

Unusual for this year, three major contending films have done only limited industry screenings and sent out their films late – The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy. This means that many preceding critic and guild nominations and awards might not be as strong of indicators for making the Academy’s list as in previous years.

Yet early word out of Hollywood is that The Revenant and The Hateful Eight could be too violent for the notoriously older Academy voting body. And Joy’s mixed reviews may have taken itself out of contention entirely, save for a Best Actress berth for Oscar darling Jennifer Lawrence.

Then there’s the hard-to-predict comedy factor. The Academy rarely honors comedies, and when it does one should think along the lines of Annie Hall. So while Anchorman director Adam McKay’s all-star dramedy The Big Short is gaining serious traction, making a dent in the Academy is up for questioning.

Plus, as of press time, no one has seen Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which may prove to not only dominate the technical categories, but, if it’s as good as everyone hopes it is, it could be a long shot for Best Picture, Best Director, and hope against hope, Best Supporting Actor for Harrison Ford.

BEST PICTURE

Safe Bets

Spotlight
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian

In the Mix

Inside Out
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
The Big Short Room
Bridge of Spies
Beasts of No Nation

A Girl Can Dream

Steve Jobs

The Academy’s widening of the field from five to up to ten nominees in 2009 was intended to allow some of the year’s most popular commercial and critical successes to make the grade. And this year, you can expect to see The Martian, Mad Max: Fury Road, and perhaps even Inside Out competing for Best Picture. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Carol which, while it doesn’t have a reach outside of cinephile and industry circles, is an artistic achievement that cannot be ignored.

BEST DIRECTOR

Safe Bets

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Todd Haynes, Carol
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

In the Mix

Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

A Girl Can Dream

Ryan Coogler, Creed

Tom McCarthy told a great, taut, and important story, and Ridley Scott, delivered one of the best crowd-pleasing films in years, but Haynes and Miller made visionary and lasting contributions to the cinema. If there’s justice in this world, one of them will win, but this is the Oscars, so expect someone else to go home with the statue.

BEST ACTOR

Safe Bets

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

In the Mix

Matt Damon, The Martian
Will Smith, Concussion
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Michael Caine, Youth

A Girl Can Dream

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Could this finally be Leo’s year? Perennial Oscar bridesmaid Leonardo DiCaprio could not only win on the strength of an unbelievably demanding role, but also the fact that the four-time nominee is long overdue. If only he didn’t have to contend with a mesmerizing Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs.

And it also bears mentioning that Eddie Redmayne is likely to be nominated for The Danish Girl, but the wrongful 2015 winner for Best Actor (The Theory of Everything) does not merit mentioning on my list.

BEST ACTRESS

Safe Bets

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Saorise Ronan, Room
Brie Larson, Room

In the Mix

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

A Girl Can Dream

Emily Blunt, Sicario

It’s going to be a showdown between Blanchett, Ronan, and Larson, with all three being locks for nominations. But if anyone has the edge, it might be Larson with her fearless breakthrough (plus, Blanchett’s already got two wins).

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Safe Bets

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

In the Mix

Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Michael Keaton, Spotlight

A Girl Can Dream

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Kid Oscar nominees can often be more of a stunt than truly deserving (see Quvenzhané Wallis’ unbearable campaign for Beasts of the Southern Wild), but nineyear-old Jacob Tremblay was truly, truly remarkable. The Academy also loves a good underdog story, so they would be fools not to nominate Sylvester Stallone for his return as Rocky Balboa. Rylance, however, has swept many of the critics awards, and is Bridge of Spies’ best chance to take home hardware Oscar night.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Safe Bets

Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish G
irl Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

In the Mix

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

A Girl Can Dream

Mya Taylor, Tangerine

Helen Mirren is likely to get some Oscar love this year (remember, the voting body is old), whether it’s for lead actress for Woman in Gold, or supporting for Trumbo. And itgirl Alicia Vikander gave tremendous performances in both The Danish Girl and Ex Machina, generating substantial goodwill. Expect the Academy to favor the stodgy period piece over heady scifi.