What Exactly Is El Niño?

March 25, 2016

“El Niño is a warming of the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean,” explained Keysor. “It influences the movement of storms and has a huge consequence on our weather patterns.”

Water temperatures normally run around 78–80 degrees in that region of the Pacific, but in an El Niño year, those temps can rise 1–3 degrees.

“That may not seem like a lot, but it actually makes a huge difference when you’re talking about a body of water that size,” Keysor said.

Meteorologists still aren’t sure what causes this climate cycle that seems to recur every few years; this round of El Niño, one of the strongest on record so far, ramped up last fall. It typically causes a milder winter and has done just that in many areas this season. So what will be its next impact on northern Michigan?

“Historically, we’ll see a warmer and drier summer,” Keysor said. “At this point, though, El Niño is fading and may be followed by a La Niña.”

The opposite cycle of El Niño, La Niña causes those same Pacific waters to become cooler than normal, which also impacts our weather patterns. Can you guess what will happen next? Look ahead to winter to find out.

“If we do transition into a La Niña, it can cause a colder winter overall, but not necessarily with more snow,” Keysor said.

– Kristi Kates