Where are the Workers?

Spectator

By Stephen Tuttle | Aug. 7, 2021

Where are they? Where did all the employees go? 

These days it is unusual to pass a business — almost any business — that hasn't posted a “Now Hiring” or “Help Wanted” sign of some kind. Others are posting their vacancies on various online platforms hoping to attract applicants. 

But, for some reason, the vacancies and the unemployment statistics do not add up; it is difficult to connect the dots. 

Immediately prior to the start of the pandemic, Michigan's unemployment rate had fallen to 3.9 percent. It had ballooned to a whopping 14.8 percent by June of 2020, comparable to the rate during the Great Recession. Now, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, Michigan unemployment is about 5 percent. Not great but a significant improvement in just the last few months. It's an even better 4.8 percent in Grand Traverse County. 

And according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, national unemployment at the end of June 2021 was down to 5.9 percent, about the same as in April and May.   

So unemployment is down and heading to pre-pandemic levels, but job openings — as of May, 9.2 million of them nationally and 83,000 just in Michigan — have exploded. Either there are way more jobs than existed in January 2020 or way fewer available employees, and there seems to be little explanation or statistical support for either. Nor is there any evidence the workforce has suddenly fled the region in numbers. 

Unemployment is not so low we've suddenly run out of available workers but, for whatever reason, we don't seem to be able to connect job openings and job applicants.

And nearly every sector of the economy is hungry for employees.

We see the signs posted at restaurants and other retail stores, some of which have increased even their entry-level wages to $15/hour or more. There are also shortages of teachers, a trend that started years ago and has now dramatically increased. We have a nursing shortage sure to worsen as they are confronted with yet another pandemic surge and more exhausting days and nights that seem without end. There are IT jobs available but not enough people with the skills to fill them. There are jobs aplenty going wanting in the trades, along with union apprenticeships that pay while trainees learn.      

According to the job listing website indeed.com, there are currently 3,312 job openings within a 25-mile radius of Traverse City. Simplyhired.com, a similar site, lists 2,579 job openings in the same area. 

So, what we have are lots and lots of available jobs and lots of people who say they can't find a job and can't pay their rent or mortgage or other bills. We're now told the expiration of the rent moratorium will lead to even more loss of jobs and even more people contracting COVID-19. 

There are several explanations floating around as to why such a disconnect exists. Which you choose to accept is, unfortunately, dependent on your politics.

On one side are those claiming the federal unemployment stipend of $300/week added to whatever state unemployment is available has created a disincentive for our workforce to return to work. In Michigan, the maximum weekly state unemployment is $362, though the average check is about $50 less than that. Added to the $300 federal check, the average unemployed Michigander can realize about $615/week, which is about $15/hour. Why work for $15/hour, the argument goes, when you can do nothing for $15/hour?      

Some two dozen states, all controlled by Republicans, have either declined to accept the federal unemployment or are about to end the program. All of them have suggested their decision is based on the idea of getting people off the dole and back to work. Smaller and fewer unemployment checks, they claim, will help further that goal.

But a Morgan Stanley survey found no statistically significant difference in unemployment or in available job openings between the states accepting the federal unemployment checks and those that do not. So maybe that argument doesn't explain the dichotomy.

Democrats, on the other hand, point to mostly social reasons for the unfulfilled job openings. The shrinking availability of licensed child care facilities in most of the country has required many parents to choose between work and being a stay-at-home parent, especially among those parents who cannot work from home.

Some are hesitant to return to an office environment. Some who had regular interaction with the public grew weary of the anger directed at them for policies they did not create and have simply left the workforce.   

Still, we're not at all sure why there are thousands of jobs still open, in almost every sector of the economy, and thousands of people who cannot or will not fill them. It makes little sense.